Bitcoin (BTC) Price to $250K? Here’s Why Arthur Hayes Loves Trump’s Tariff War

Bitcoin (BTC) Price to $250K? Here’s Why Arthur Hayes Loves Trump’s Tariff War

TLDR

• Arthur Hayes predicts Bitcoin could reach $250,000 by 2025 if the Fed shifts to quantitative easing
• Trump administration implementing widespread tariffs: 10% base rate with higher rates for China (34%), EU (20%), and Japan (24%)
• Hayes suggests tariffs will weaken the US Dollar Index as overseas investors sell US stocks
• Bitcoin needs to hold $76,500 support level until April 15 (Tax Day) according to Hayes
• Fed rate cuts and dollar printing may provide liquidity to offset tariff impacts, potentially benefiting Bitcoin

BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes sees a silver lining in President Donald Trump’s new tariff policies. While these trade measures may cause short-term market turbulence, Hayes believes they could set the stage for Bitcoin’s next major rally.

Trump’s administration announced a 10% tariff on all countries starting April 5. Some nations face steeper rates, with China at 34%, the European Union at 20%, and Japan at 24%.

These tariffs aim to address the $1.2 trillion U.S. trade deficit and boost domestic manufacturing. Trump even declared April 2 as “Liberation Day” to mark this economic policy shift.

Hayes remains optimistic about the tariffs’ effects on Bitcoin. “Global imbalances will be corrected, and the pain papered over with printed money, which is good for BTC,” he stated in an April 3 post on X.

Some of y'all are running scurred, but I LOVE TARIFFS, some chart porn to understand why.

Global imbalances will be corrected, and the pain papered over with printed money, which is good for $BTC. pic.twitter.com/jc5eZ2VIEa

— Arthur Hayes (@CryptoHayes) April 4, 2025

Market Reactions and Bitcoin’s Position

The announcement of tariffs triggered market reactions. April 3 saw “the largest single-day point loss for the Nasdaq 100 in history,” according to trading resource The Kobeissi Letter.

Bitcoin has struggled in recent months despite reaching all-time highs above $100,000 earlier this year. The cryptocurrency is currently trading around $83,000, down from those peaks.

Hayes was one of the first analysts to predict a correction when Bitcoin was trading above $100,000. His market insights have proven accurate in recent months.

Research from Nansen indicates a 70% chance the crypto market will bottom out before June. This timing aligns with global uncertainty over tariff negotiations currently underway.

Bitcoin and Ethereum are down 15% and 22% respectively from their year-to-date highs. Many experts anticipate a rebound after Q2 2025.

The Federal Reserve Factor

Hayes points to several factors that could drive Bitcoin higher amid the tariff situation. One key element is the potential weakening of the US Dollar Index as overseas investors sell US stocks to “bring money home.”

The stringent tariff on China could lead to a weakening yuan. Hayes suggests “China could respond by allowing CNY to weaken past 8.00,” which might push Chinese investors toward Bitcoin as a wealth preservation tool.

Most importantly, Hayes sees Federal Reserve policy as critical. “We need Fed easing,” he noted, highlighting that the two-year Treasury yield dropped after the tariff announcement.

This market reaction suggests investors expect the Fed to cut rates and possibly restart quantitative easing. Such moves would increase liquidity in markets, making risk assets like cryptocurrencies more attractive.

Hayes has made a bold prediction that Bitcoin could reach $250,000 by 2025. This forecast depends on the Fed shifting toward quantitative easing and expanding the fiat money supply.

The current situation creates a unique dynamic. Hayes explains that foreigners can’t buy US Treasury bonds without dollar exports. This could force the Fed and banking system to ensure liquidity in the Treasury market through money printing.

According to Hayes, Bitcoin needs to hold the $76,500 support level until Tax Day on April 15 to move past current market challenges. He believes Fed intervention could provide the catalyst for a market revival.

Jeff Park, head of alpha strategies at Bitwise Invest, shares Hayes’ view. Park stated that in a “world of weaker dollar and weaker US rates…risk assets in the US will fly through the roof beyond your wildest imagination.”

The first quarter of 2025 saw a 12% decline in Bitcoin’s price, marking its worst first quarter performance in seven years. Despite this slump, institutional interest in crypto continues to grow.

Grayscale has filed to convert its Digital Large Cap Fund into a publicly traded spot ETF. This fund includes Bitcoin, Ethereum, and XRP, potentially giving retail investors easier access to these assets.

Meanwhile, Circle, the issuer of USDC stablecoin, is preparing for an IPO that could value the company at $4-5 billion. JPMorgan and Citigroup are serving as key advisors for this public offering expected in late April.

The coming months will test Hayes’ theories about tariffs, Federal Reserve policy, and Bitcoin’s price action. While short-term volatility persists, the potential for monetary policy shifts keeps long-term Bitcoin bulls optimistic.

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