SEC Begins Review of Spot Solana ETF Applications with October 2025 Deadline

SEC Begins Review of Spot Solana ETF Applications with October 2025 Deadline

TLDR:

• Multiple financial firms including VanEck, 21Shares, Bitwise, Canary Capital, and Grayscale have filed applications for spot Solana ETFs, with SEC decisions expected by October 2025
• Bloomberg analysts estimate 70% approval odds under the crypto-friendly Trump administration, while Polymarket shows 84% probability
• Coinbase’s recent launch of regulated Solana futures contracts could boost ETF approval chances by addressing SEC’s market manipulation concerns
• The SEC’s 240-day review period for Solana ETFs began in February 2025, with Grayscale’s deadline set for October 16

The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has started reviewing multiple applications for spot Solana exchange-traded funds, marking a potential expansion of crypto investment products beyond Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs.

The regulatory body has until October 2025 to make its decisions on these applications.

Five major asset managers – Grayscale, Bitwise, Canary, 21Shares, and VanEck – have submitted their applications for spot Solana ETFs. The review process began in early February when the SEC acknowledged Grayscale’s application on February 6, followed by four additional filings on February 11.

The timeline for these applications took shape when they were added to the Federal Register. Grayscale’s filing was added on February 12, while the other applications were included on February 18, 2025. This established a clear regulatory timeline for all five proposals.

Bloomberg Senior ETF Analyst Eric Balchunas has assigned a 70% probability that Solana ETFs will receive approval this year. Data from Polymarket shows even more optimism, placing the approval likelihood at 84% for 2025.

Our official alt coin ETF approval odds are out. Litecoin leads w 90% chance, then Doge, followed by Solana and XRP. We are only doing for 33 Act $IBIT-esque filings. But def poss to see futures or Cayman-subsidiary type 40 Act stuff get through as well. https://t.co/JSaNnifjbu

— Eric Balchunas (@EricBalchunas) February 10, 2025

The regulatory landscape for crypto ETFs has changed under President Donald Trump’s administration. The SEC has adopted a more crypto-friendly stance, reducing its aggressive approach to crypto-related lawsuits. This shift in regulatory attitude has contributed to growing optimism in the cryptocurrency sector.

Solana Futures

A key development that could influence the SEC’s decision came this week when Coinbase’s derivatives exchange launched regulated futures contracts for Solana. These contracts are overseen by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

Bitwise Senior Investment Strategist Juan Leon told Decrypt that Coinbase’s move likely improves the odds of a Solana ETF approval. “Now there’s a regulated market that they’ll be able to look at,” Leon said.

The presence of regulated futures markets has been an important consideration for the SEC in past crypto ETF approvals. This was highlighted in Grayscale’s legal victory in 2023, when a court found that having regulated futures markets should address the SEC’s concerns about fraud and market manipulation.

The SEC’s deadline for these applications extends to October 16, 2025. Under previous leadership, the agency often used the maximum time allowed before making decisions on crypto ETFs. However, analysts suggest the process could move faster under the current administration.

Solana Price

Solana’s native token (SOL) has maintained stability during this period, trading at $172.83 with a 0.77% increase over 24 hours. However, the cryptocurrency has faced challenges, experiencing a 42% decline year-to-date as of February 18, 2025.

The potential approval of Solana ETFs follows the successful launch of spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs. These products enabled traditional financial institutions to invest billions in cryptocurrencies and contributed to market growth.

Each applicant brings unique features to their ETF proposals. The SEC will evaluate these applications based on compliance with regulatory standards, investor protection measures, and safeguards against market manipulation.

Trump’s nominee for SEC Chair, Paul Atkins, could play a role in the approval process once confirmed by the Senate. Any statements from Atkins about crypto ETFs could signal the direction of future approvals.

The SEC is also dealing with ongoing enforcement actions that could affect the Solana ETF decisions. A lawsuit against Coinbase from 2023, which claimed Solana was a security, was recently postponed after a judge granted an interlocutory appeal.

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