Why Bitcoin Could Be Far From $100,000, Says Fidelity Analyst

The bulls are back in control after a brief drop in the price of Bitcoin. The first cryptocurrency by market cap trades north of $57,000 with a 2.5% and 11.1% profit in the daily and weekly charts, respectively.

The general sentiment in the markets it’s bullish, as operators and traders expect Bitcoin to fulfill its historical performance. BTC’s price usually tends to trend to the upside as the year comes to an end.

Related Reading | Bitcoin Price Prepares To Blast Off Back Into RSI “Bull Zone”

Bitcoin is trading less than $10,000 away from its all-time high at $64,870 and it could run into uncharted territory if, as the Director of Macro for Fidelity Jurrien Timmer said in an interview with CNBC, short-term holders FOMO into BTC. These investors are those that have only held BTC for the past 3 months.

As seen in the chart below, only 15% of the BTC total supply is currently held by “momentum chasers”. In order for Bitcoin to reach new highs, this metric must stand above 20%.

In that sense, Timmer believes Bitcoin’s current run to the upside lack “excessiveness” which could suggest some stability and sustainability for the current price action. Unlike previous rallies, this time Bitcoin seems to be moving outside the influence of “speculators”, as Timmer called them.

However, some traders could find Timmer’s prediction disappointing as he believes the benchmark crypto is far from the major psychological mark of $100,000.

Related Reading | Bitcoin Short-Term Supply Reaches All-Time Low

When the expert checked the Bitcoin/Gold ratio to analyzed BTC’s supply to demand model, he found the following:

So is bitcoin on its way to new highs? I know better than to make bold price projections but I will note that the next (and last) time my supply-and-demand models intersect is at around $100k in 2023 or 2024.

On the other hand, analyst Allen Au looked at the Bitcoin Pi Cycle Top indicator to determine if the cryptocurrency has entered a bearish phase. This metric has been historically accurate to predict market tops.

As the analyst explained, it uses the 111-day simple moving average and the 250 simple moving average (SMA) of the price of Bitcoin. When these two intertwine, operators begin to suspect BTC has reached its top.

Related Reading | Bitcoin Whales Accumulation Patterns Shows Strong Bullish Sentiment Among Top Holders

Unlike Timmer, this model predicts a Bitcoin price beyond the $300,000 mark by the end of 2021. As the analyst clarified, Bitcoin needs to outperform the previous bullish cycle in order for the metric to be accurate:

What I’ve shown is not to invalidate the Pi Cycle Top indicator or agree that there is a lengthening cycle. What the simulations have shown is that the Pi Cycle Top will miss BTC’s cycle peak if it were to occur in Dec. 2021 unless BTC is in a supercycle now.

In the scenarios presented by Au, without taking into consideration the exact BTC’s price prediction, the cryptocurrency will trend to the upside at least until it reaches its potential peak in 2022.