Tesla (TSLA) Stock Prediction & Analysis: EV Giant’s 19% Rally from March Lows Just the Beginning?

Tesla (TSLA) Stock Prediction & Analysis: EV Giant’s 19% Rally from March Lows Just the Beginning?

TLDR

• Tesla stock jumped 6.2% ahead of first-quarter delivery results expected Wednesday
• Brand concerns persist due to Elon Musk’s political role, with deliveries potentially declining year-over-year
• Model Y was reportedly a bestseller in China for March with over 43,000 units sold
• Stock appears to have bottomed at March 11 low of $217.02, recovering about 19% since then
• Analysts have lowered Q1 delivery expectations to between 315,000-369,000 vehicles, below last year’s 386,810

Tesla (TSLA) shares rebounded on Tuesday, climbing 6.2% to $274.58 ahead of the company’s first-quarter delivery report. The stock has fallen approximately 32% year-to-date, but shows signs of recovery after hitting a March low.

Investors are watching closely as Tesla prepares to release its Q1 production and delivery numbers on Wednesday. The report comes amid concerns about waning demand and political controversies surrounding CEO Elon Musk.

Musk’s role as head of President Trump’s Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) has stirred controversy. Some analysts believe this has turned Tesla into a “political symbol,” potentially damaging the brand.

A recent YouGov and Yahoo News survey revealed that 67% of U.S. adults would not consider buying or leasing a Tesla vehicle. Among those, 37% cited Elon Musk as the whole or part of their reason.

Global Sales Picture

Despite challenges in Western markets, there’s positive news from China. The refreshed Model Y was reportedly a bestseller there in March, with over 43,000 units sold, likely making it the best-selling battery EV in China for the month.

However, reports indicate Tesla sales have fallen in Europe. Sales in France reportedly dropped 41% in the first quarter compared to the same period last year.

Analyst consensus suggests Tesla will deliver between 315,000 and 369,000 vehicles in Q1, potentially falling below last year’s first-quarter figure of 386,810. FactSet’s delivery estimate stands at 407,900, though this has been revised downward by 10% since January.

The discrepancy in delivery expectations highlights the uncertainty surrounding Tesla’s current demand situation. Some analysts attribute the potential drop to the Model Y refresh production ramp-up.

Stifel analyst Stephen Gengaro lowered his price target on Tesla stock to $455 from $474, maintaining a buy rating. He expects Q1 deliveries around 353,000, citing the new Model Y rollout and headwinds from “the anti-Elon Musk crowd.”

Recovery and Future Outlook

Despite recent challenges, Tesla stock appears to have bottomed out. The shares are up around 19% since hitting a March low of $217.02.

In late March, Tesla held a surprise all-hands company meeting where Musk addressed concerns. His message to employees and investors was clear: “What I’m saying is, hang onto your stock.”

Wedbush Securities analyst Dan Ives described this as a “key moment for Musk and Tesla to show leadership,” noting that “leaders lead in times of trouble and crisis.”

During Tesla’s Q4 earnings call, Musk projected that while 2025 might be a “middling year” with only slight vehicle sales growth, things would go “ballistic” in 2026 and beyond.

Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas believes Tesla’s “softer auto deliveries are emblematic of a company in the transition from an automotive ‘pure play’ to a highly diversified play on AI and robotics.”

The company continues to advance its autonomous driving technology. Musk announced that unsupervised full self-driving will come as a paid service to Austin, Texas, in June, with robotaxi tests expected in many U.S. cities by year end.

Tesla also has high hopes for its Optimus robot. Musk projected the company could produce around 5,000 Optimus robots in 2025 and 50,000 in 2026, with sales beginning in the second half of 2026.

The company unveiled its Cybercab and Robovan vehicles during its “We Robot” event last October. Musk said he expects the Cybercab price tag will be below $30,000, with production starting “before 2027.”

However, some analysts were unimpressed with the event. Morgan Stanley’s Jonas described it as having a “disappointing lack of detail,” while Wells Fargo analysts called it mostly “razzle-dazzle” with “little substance.”

As Tesla shifts focus toward autonomous technology and robotics, investors will be closely watching Wednesday’s delivery report for signs of how the core automotive business is performing.

With geopolitical tensions rising, Tesla has also expressed concerns about potential tariff impacts. The company recently warned it could be singled out by other countries in a trade war.

Canada has already frozen $43 million in what it termed “suspicious” EV rebates for Tesla and excluded the company from future rebates, explicitly as retaliation for Trump tariffs.

The United Kingdom appears to be considering similar measures, with Finance Minister Rachel Reeves saying they are “looking at how we can better support the car manufacturing industry in the U.K.”

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