Solana (SOL) Price Prediction & Analysis: Falls Below $160 as FTX Token Unlock Approaches

TLDR

Solana (SOL) has dropped below $160 for the first time in 2025, falling over 7% to $158.46

An upcoming FTX unlocking of 11.2 million SOL tokens (worth $1.77 billion) on March 1 is causing investor concern

SOL’s market cap has decreased by $10 billion, with a 35% decline in the past 30 days

PumpFun is testing new AMM liquidity pools that could potentially help SOL’s price recovery

Technical analysts suggest SOL could drop to $100-112 range if selling pressure continues

Solana’s native token SOL has experienced a steep decline, dropping below $160 for the first time this year as the cryptocurrency market braces for a major token unlock event.

The price movement comes as bankruptcy administrators prepare to release 11.2 million SOL tokens, valued at approximately $1.77 billion, from the former FTX exchange on March 1.

The token’s price fell more than 7% to reach $158.46 on February 24, marking its lowest point in 2025. This represents a continuation of a downward trend that has seen SOL decrease by nearly 13% over the past week and 35% in the last month.

Data from market analytics platforms shows that Solana’s market capitalization currently stands at $78 billion, with a fully diluted valuation of $95 billion. The blockchain has also seen its decentralized exchange (DEX) volume decrease by 36.7% in the past week, with the weekly volume now at $16.6 billion.

Trading activity on derivatives platforms has shown increasing bearish sentiment. According to Amberdata, SOL block trades on Deribit accounted for nearly 25% of all Solana options activity last week, with approximately 80% of these trades concentrated in put contracts.

The upcoming FTX token unlock has created uncertainty in the market. The release of such a large number of tokens has raised concerns about potential impacts on Solana’s liquidity and price stability, as the increased supply could put additional pressure on the token’s value.

Market analysts are watching key price levels closely. Some technical analysts suggest that if SOL drops below $155, a further decline towards the $112 level could occur in the near term. More bearish predictions indicate the possibility of the price falling to $100 or even $79.

Liquidation data reveals a concentration of long positions between $120 and $160, which could accelerate the downward pressure if these positions are forced to close. Recent market movements have already triggered $21 million in long liquidations following the price drop to $160.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) for Solana has fallen to 30, indicating oversold conditions. However, traders note that a trend reversal would require renewed buying interest at current price levels.

Pump Fun

In response to market conditions, PumpFun, a Solana-based meme coin launchpad, has announced testing of new Automated Market Maker (AMM) liquidity pools. The initiative aims to enable decentralized trading directly on their platform rather than relying on external exchanges.

The beta version of PumpFun’s AMM is currently live, featuring a swap interface for trading SOL against meme coins. This development could potentially increase network activity and demand for Solana if successfully implemented.

Trading volume metrics show Solana’s daily DEX volume has decreased to $1.5 billion. The blockchain’s overall activity metrics have seen similar declines, reflecting broader market sentiment.

Recent blockchain analysis indicates that the Bybit hacker has been using Solana meme coins to launder stolen funds, adding another layer of negative market sentiment to the ecosystem.

The outcome of the FTX token unlock remains uncertain. Market participants note that if the firms that purchased these tokens from the FTX bankruptcy auction choose to hold rather than sell their positions, it could help stabilize prices.

Price charts show Solana moving within a descending parallel channel, which typically suggests continued bearish momentum unless a clear breakout occurs.