NIO Inc. (NIO) Stock Prediction & Analysis: Soaring Deliveries, Sinking Stock – What’s Going On?

NIO Inc. (NIO) Stock Prediction & Analysis: Soaring Deliveries, Sinking Stock – What’s Going On?

TLDR

• NIO delivered 42,094 vehicles in Q1 2025, a 40.1% year-over-year increase
• March deliveries reached 15,039 units, including 10,219 from premium NIO brand and 4,820 from family-focused ONVO
• NIO stock has dropped nearly 41% over the past six months despite sales growth
• Cumulative deliveries reached 713,658 vehicles by end of March 2025
• NIO began delivering its new executive flagship ET9 in late March 2025

Delivery Growth Amid Market Challenges

NIO Inc., a leading company in the global smart electric vehicle market, reported impressive delivery numbers for the first quarter of 2025. The company delivered 42,094 vehicles during this period, marking a substantial 40.1% increase compared to the same period last year.

March alone saw deliveries of 15,039 vehicles, representing a 26.7% increase year-over-year. These March deliveries were split between NIO’s two brands, with 10,219 vehicles from the premium NIO brand and 4,820 vehicles from ONVO, the company’s family-oriented smart electric vehicle line.

By the end of March, NIO’s cumulative deliveries reached a milestone of 713,658 vehicles. This steady growth in deliveries demonstrates the company’s expanding presence in the competitive electric vehicle market.

Among the March deliveries was NIO’s new ET9 model. The company began delivering this smart electric executive flagship in late March 2025, positioning it as their premium offering with advanced technology features.

The ET9 represents what the company calls “the epitome of NIO’s full-stack technologies and industry-leading innovations.” NIO claims this model sets a new benchmark for executive smart electric vehicles.

Stock Performance Concerns

Despite the positive delivery numbers, NIO’s stock performance has been disappointing for investors. The shares have fallen dramatically over recent months, losing approximately 41% of their value in the past six months.

The stock is trading at near 52-week lows. At current prices, NIO stock is valued at just 0.8 times price-to-sales (P/S) ratio compared to its five-year average P/S of 2.5, making it historically cheap.

Following the Q1 delivery announcement, NIO shares were up 1.57% in premarket trading on Tuesday. However, this modest gain does little to offset the recent downward trend.

Over the past week alone, NIO stock has declined nearly 10%. The monthly picture is even worse, with a 14.7% drop over the last month, significantly underperforming the broader S&P 500 index.

The disconnect between delivery growth and stock performance can be partly explained by the company’s financial results. Despite increasing vehicle sales by 13% year-over-year in Q4 2024, NIO’s net loss surged 33% during the same period.

For the full year 2024, NIO reported a net loss increase of 8% to $3 billion on revenue of $9 billion. These financial struggles continue to worry investors despite the sales momentum.

Several factors have contributed to NIO’s profitability challenges. Price competition in the Chinese EV market has forced the company to repeatedly cut prices over the past couple of years.

Additional pressures on profitability include car platform upgrades, high input costs, marketing expenses, and other non-operating items. These factors have significantly impacted NIO’s bottom line.

NIO’s management is attempting to address these issues through cost-cutting initiatives. The company has launched its own autonomous driving chip and software to reduce costs and decrease reliance on third parties.

The company is also expanding its market reach in China through its mass-market brand ONVO, with plans to launch a second model under this brand in the coming months.

NIO’s Chinese competitors have also reported strong delivery numbers for the first quarter. XPENG delivered 33,205 Smart EVs in March, a remarkable 268% increase from a year earlier, with a Q1 total of 94,008 units, up 331% year-over-year.

Li Auto reported Q1 deliveries of 92,864 vehicles, representing a 15.5% rise from the same period in 2024. In market activity, XPENG shares rose more than 4% premarket, while Li Auto gained 1.4% following their announcements.

NIO Inc. was founded in November 2014 with the mission of “Blue Sky Coming.” The company describes itself as a user enterprise focusing on innovative technology and experience excellence.

Currently, NIO produces premium smart electric vehicles under three brands: premium smart electric vehicles under the NIO brand, family-oriented smart electric vehicles through the ONVO brand, and small smart high-end electric cars with the FIREFLY brand.

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