Lucid Group (LCID) Stock Prediction & Analysis: Will New CEO Drive Recovery?

Lucid Group (LCID) Stock Prediction & Analysis: Will New CEO Drive Recovery?

TLDR

• Peter Rawlinson unexpectedly stepped down as Lucid CEO in February 2025 after 12 years with the company
• Lucid has significantly missed production targets, delivering only 10,241 vehicles in 2024 versus earlier projections of 90,000
• The company’s new Gravity SUV is reportedly attracting Tesla customers, partly due to Tesla’s brand issues
• Lucid has strong Saudi Arabian backing but needs to reduce this dependency for long-term stability
• The EV maker maintains $6.14 billion in liquidity, providing runway into second half of 2026

Lucid Group, once a promising luxury electric vehicle maker that captured investors’ attention with its Tesla engineering pedigree, now faces critical challenges in 2025.

The company’s stock has plummeted more than 95% from its post-merger high of $55.52, reflecting years of missed production targets and strategic hurdles.

Former CEO Peter Rawlinson, who led Lucid for 12 years, unexpectedly departed in February. His exit came at a pivotal moment for the company.

The leadership vacuum emerged just as Lucid launched its newest vehicle, the Gravity SUV. Chief Operating Officer Marc Winterhoff has stepped in as interim CEO while the search for a permanent replacement continues.

Finding the right leadership will be crucial. The next CEO must carefully balance investments with cost-cutting measures during this expansion phase.

Production Struggles and Reset Expectations

Lucid’s production history tells a sobering story of overpromised and underdelivered targets. Initially, the company projected 20,000 vehicle deliveries in 2022, 49,000 in 2023, and 90,000 in 2024.

The reality fell dramatically short. Actual deliveries reached just 4,369 vehicles in 2022, 6,001 in 2023, and 10,241 in 2024.

Former CEO Rawlinson had once claimed Lucid could produce over 500,000 vehicles annually by 2025. That number has been drastically revised downward.

Current projections for 2025 sit at approximately 20,000 vehicles. While this represents nearly double the 2024 production, it’s nowhere near earlier ambitions.

Lucid’s next leader must establish more realistic expectations. Investors need a clearer and more achievable roadmap for future growth.

Tesla Customers Taking Notice

Despite these challenges, there are bright spots for Lucid. The company began delivering its new Gravity SUV to customers this month.

Interim CEO Marc Winterhoff recently noted increased interest from Tesla customers in both the Gravity SUV and Air sedan. This customer migration may be partly attributed to brand issues currently affecting Tesla.

Lucid enjoys another potential advantage in the current trade climate. As primarily a U.S.-focused manufacturer, the company won’t be impacted by President Donald Trump’s 25% tariffs on foreign cars, which took effect April 2.

This domestic manufacturing base could provide a competitive edge. It differentiates Lucid from some international EV makers now facing higher import costs.

The Saudi Arabian government continues to be Lucid’s biggest supporter. The Public Investment Fund (PIF) of Saudi Arabia owns more than 60% of Lucid’s shares.

Beyond equity ownership, Saudi Arabia placed a decade-long order for 100,000 Air sedans in 2022. This commitment provides revenue stability during Lucid’s growth phase.

Lucid’s financial position remains stable for the near term. The company reported $6.14 billion in total liquidity at the end of 2024.

Management believes this provides sufficient runway into the second half of 2026. This timeline should allow Lucid to deliver more Gravity SUVs and launch its rumored mid-size SUV, potentially called “Earth,” planned for 2026.

However, long-term concerns remain about Saudi dependence. If Lucid struggles with new vehicle launches while continuing to burn cash, the PIF could potentially divest and invest elsewhere.

Diversifying its investor base and securing additional large orders would strengthen Lucid’s position. It would reduce the risk of overreliance on a single backer.

Ongoing share dilution presents another challenge for investors. Since its SPAC merger, Lucid has increased its outstanding shares by 87% through stock-based compensation and secondary offerings.

Last year alone, the company spent $286 million on stock-based compensation. This represented 35% of total revenue.

Reducing dilution would benefit shareholders. It would also help narrow GAAP-based net losses and demonstrate a more sustainable business model.

With a current market cap of $7.3 billion, Lucid trades at approximately 5 times this year’s sales. This valuation doesn’t represent a clear bargain given the company’s struggles.

Lucid’s prospects as a turnaround play remain uncertain. Investors should watch how the company addresses its leadership transition, production scaling, financial sustainability, and market positioning throughout 2025.

The post Lucid Group (LCID) Stock Prediction & Analysis: Will New CEO Drive Recovery? appeared first on CoinCentral.